The Power of Reinforcement Learning

Continuous learning for better predictions

What is Reinforcement Learning (RL)?

Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a learning approach where a agent takes actions in a environment to reward to maximize. The model learns policies that choose the best action based on the current state.

• Agent: the model that makes decisions.

• Environment: the world in which the model operates (marketplace, webshop, supply chain, stock exchange).

• Reward: a number indicating how good an action was (e.g., higher margin, lower inventory costs).

• Policy: strategy that chooses an action given a state.

Acronyms explained:

• RL = Reinforcement Learning

• MDP = Markov Decision Process (mathematical framework for RL)

• MLOps = Machine Learning Operations (operational side: data, models, deployment, monitoring)

Why RL is relevant now

1. Continuous learning: RL adjusts policy when demand, prices, or behavior change.

2. Decision-oriented: Not only predicting, but actually optimizing of the outcome.

3. Simulation-friendly: You can safely run "what-if" scenarios before going live.

4. Feedback first: Use real KPIs (margin, conversion, inventory turnover rate) as direct rewards.

Important: AlphaFold is a deep-learning breakthrough for protein folding; it prime example of RL is AlphaGo/AlphaZero (decision-making with rewards). The point remains: learning via feedback yields superior policies in dynamic environments.
AlphaFold uses a combination of Generative AI to predict a way to predict GEN combinations instead of word combinations (tokens). It uses Reinforcement Learning to predict the most likely structure of a specific protein structure.

Business use cases (with direct KPI link)

1) Optimizing Revenue & Profit (pricing + promotions)

• Goal: maximum gross margin with stable conversion.

• Status: time, inventory, competitor price, traffic, history.

• Action: choose price step or promotion type.

• Reward: margin – (promotion costs + return risk).

• Bonus: RL prevents “overfitting” to historical price elasticity because it explores.

2) Inventory & Supply Chain (multi-echelon)

• Goal: service level ↑, inventory costs ↓.

• Action: adjust reorder points and order quantities.

• Reward: revenue – inventory and backorder costs.

3) Distributing the marketing budget (multi-channel attribution)

• Goal: maximizing ROAS/CLV (Return on Ad Spend / Customer Lifetime Value).

• Action: budget allocation across channels & creatives.

• Reward: attributed margin in the short and long term.

4) Finance & stock signaling

• Goal: risk-weighted maximizing return.

• Status: price features, volatility, calendar/macro events, news/sentiment features.

• Action: position adjustment (increase/decrease/neutralize) or “no trade”.

• Reward: P&L (Profit and Loss) – transaction costs – risk penalty.

• Attention: no investment advice; ensure strict risk limits, slippage models and compliance.

The Mantra LOOP:

Analyze → Train → Simulate → Operate → Evaluate → Retrain

This is how we ensure voortdurend leren at Fortis AI:

1. Analysis (Analyze)
   Data audit, KPI definition, reward design, offline validation.

2. Training
   Policy optimization (e.g., PPO/DDDQN). Determine hyperparameters and constraints.

3. Nabootsen
   Digital twin or market simulator for wat-als and A/B scenarios.

4. Uitvoeren
   Controlled rollout (canary/gradual). Feature store + real-time inference.

5. Assess
   Live KPIs, drift detection, fairness/guardrails, risk measurement.

6. Re-educate
   Periodic or event-driven retraining with fresh data and outcome feedback.

Minimalist pseudocode for the loop

Why RL over “only predicting”?

Classic supervised models predict an outcome (e.g., revenue or demand). But the best prediction does not automatically lead to the best action. RL optimizes directly the decision-making space with the actual KPI as a reward—and learns from the consequences.

In short:

• Governed: “What is the probability that X will happen?”

• RL: “Which action maximizes my goal now and in the long term?”

Success Factors (and Pitfalls)

Design the reward well

• Combine short-term KPI (daily margin) with long-term value (CLV, inventory health).

• Add sanctions for risk, compliance, and customer impact.

Limit exploration risk

• Start in simulation; go live with canary releases and caps (e.g., max price step/day).

• Build guardrails: stop-losses, budget limits, approval flows.

Prevent data drift & leakage

• Use a feature store with version control.

• Monitor drift (statistics change) and automatically retrain.

Manage MLOps & governance

• CI/CD for models, reproducible pipelines, explainability and audit trails.

• Align with DORA/IT governance and privacy frameworks.

How to start pragmatically?

1. Select a KPI-tight, well-defined case (e.g., dynamic pricing or budget allocation).

2. Build a simple simulator with the most important dynamics and constraints.

3. Start with a safe policy (rule-based) as a baseline; then test RL policies side-by-side.

4. Measure live, small-scale (canary), and scale up after proven uplift.

5. Automate retraining (schedule + event triggers) and drift alerts.

What Fortis AI delivers

Upon Fortis AI we combine strategy, data engineering, and MLOps with agent-based RL:

• Discovery & KPI Design: rewards, constraints, risk limits.

• Data & Simulation: feature stores, digital twins, A/B framework.

• RL Policies: from baseline → PPO/DDQN → context-aware policies.

• Production-ready: CI/CD, monitoring, drift, retraining & governance.

• Business impact: focus on margin, service level, ROAS/CLV or risk-adjusted PnL.

Do you want to know which continuous learning loop delivers the most for your organization?
👉 Schedule an exploratory meeting via fortis ai.nl – we would be happy to show you a demo of how you can apply Reinforcement Learning in practice.